Where is the economy heading?
Twelve-month forecasts from a statistical model that combines the official data tracked on this page with other economic indicators. The ranges show how far off the model's forecasts have typically been in the past.
Forecasts
The model's best guess for the year ahead, with shaded bands showing the range of likely outcomes.
Inflation forecast
Year-over-year change in consumer prices: recent history (solid) and the model's forecast for the next 12 months (dashed), with 68% and 90% likely ranges.
Unemployment forecast
The unemployment rate: recent history (solid) and the model's forecast for the next 12 months (dashed), with likely ranges.
Economic growth forecast
Growth of the whole economy (real GDP, annualized rate): recent history and the model's forecast for the next four quarters.
Wage growth forecast
Inflation-adjusted growth of weekly pay for workers at the bottom (10th percentile), middle (median), and top (90th percentile) of the pay scale, with the likely range shown for the median.
Jobs
Is it easy to find work? The job market is the foundation of most families' finances.
Unemployment rate
The share of people who want to work but don't have a job. Lower is better.
Jobs added each month
How many jobs the economy gained or lost versus the month before, in thousands. A healthy economy adds jobs most months.
Prices
How fast is the cost of living rising? Index charts show the change since January 2024 (start = 100), and the dollar charts show what things actually cost.
Consumer Price Index: All
Overall consumer prices. A value of 107 means prices are 7% higher than in January 2024.
Consumer Price Index: Medical care
The same measure, for medical care — doctor visits, hospital services, prescription drugs, and health insurance.
Grocery prices
Average US prices of everyday staples: ground beef, milk, eggs, and bread.
Gas price
The average pump price of a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline.
Housing
For most families, housing is the single biggest expense.
Consumer Price Index: Housing
The cost of shelter and utilities — rent, homeowners' costs, and household energy — relative to January 2024.
Mortgage rate
The average rate on a new 30-year fixed mortgage. Lower rates make buying a home more affordable.
The national debt
What the federal government owes, and what it costs to carry it.
Federal debt
Total debt of the US federal government, in trillions of dollars. It grows when Washington spends more than it collects.
Interest on the debt
What the government paid in interest on its debt over the previous 12 months. More debt and higher interest rates both push this up — money that cannot go to anything else.
Paychecks and the public mood
Are wages keeping up with prices — and how do Americans feel about the economy?
Inflation-adjusted pay
Hourly pay of typical private-sector workers (excluding managers), with inflation removed. When this line rises, pay is growing faster than prices.
Wages across the income distribution
Inflation-adjusted weekly pay of full-time workers near the bottom (10th percentile), middle (median), and top (90th percentile) of the pay scale, relative to early 2024. Shows whose pay is keeping up.
Consumer confidence
How optimistic households feel about their finances and the economy, by income group. Higher means more optimistic.
Net sentiment about future business conditions
The share of people expecting good business conditions a year from now, minus the share expecting bad ones. Below zero, pessimists outnumber optimists.
