US Economy Barometer

Where the US economy stands and where it might be heading, in simple graphs.

Where is the economy heading?

Twelve-month forecasts from a statistical model that combines the official data tracked on this page with other economic indicators.

+3.2%
Inflation
prices 12 months from now
68% range: 1.6% to 4.1%
4.4%
Unemployment
12 months from now
68% range: 3.7% to 4.6%
+2.4%
GDP growth
next 4 quarters, annualized
68% range: -0.1% to 4.0%
+0.4%
Real median wage growth
12 months from now
68% range: -1.6% to 1.9%
Forecasts made with data through July 2026. Detailed methodology here · technical note (PDF).

Forecasts

The statistical model's best prediction for the year ahead, with shaded bands showing the range of likely outcomes, based on the model's historical accuracy.

Inflation forecast

Year-over-year change in consumer prices: recent history (solid) and the model's forecast for the next 12 months (dashed), with 68% and 90% likely ranges.

Forecast of CPI inflation over the next 12 months with uncertainty bands

Unemployment forecast

The unemployment rate: recent history (solid) and the model's forecast for the next 12 months (dashed), with likely ranges.

Forecast of the unemployment rate over the next 12 months with uncertainty bands

Economic growth forecast

Growth of the US economy (real GDP, annualized rate): recent history and the model's forecast for the next four quarters.

Forecast of real GDP growth over the next four quarters with uncertainty bands

Wage growth forecast

Inflation-adjusted growth of weekly pay for workers at the bottom (10th percentile), middle (median), and top (90th percentile) of the pay scale, with the likely range shown for the median.

Forecast of real wage growth by percentile over the next four quarters with uncertainty bands

Jobs

Unemployment rate

The share of people who want to work but don't have a job. Lower is (generally) better.

Unemployment rate
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Data series is adjusted for seasonality. Link to data page.

Jobs added each month

How many jobs the economy gained or lost versus the month before, in thousands. A healthy economy generally adds jobs most months.

Monthly change in nonfarm payroll jobs
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics payroll survey. Monthly change in total nonfarm employment, adjusted for seasonality. Link to data page.

Prices

How fast is the cost of living rising? Index charts show the change since January 2024 (start = 100), and the dollar charts show what things actually cost.

Consumer Price Index: All

Overall consumer prices. A value of 107 means prices are 7% higher than in January 2024.

Consumer Price Index
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Data series is adjusted for seasonality. Link to data page.

Consumer Price Index: Medical care

The same measure, for medical care: doctor visits, hospital services, prescription drugs, and health insurance.

Consumer Price Index: Medical care
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Data series is adjusted for seasonality. Link to data page.

Grocery prices

Average prices of everyday staples: ground beef, milk, eggs, and bread.

Average prices of ground beef, milk, eggs, and bread
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics average price data. U.S. city average prices, not adjusted for seasonality. Link to data page.

Gas price

The average pump price of a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline.

Average price of regular gasoline per gallon
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics average price data. U.S. city average price, not adjusted for seasonality. Link to data page.

Housing

Consumer Price Index: Housing

The cost of shelter (rent, homeowners' costs, utility), relative to January 2024.

Consumer Price Index: Housing
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Data series is adjusted for seasonality. Link to data page.

Mortgage rate

The average rate on a new 30-year fixed mortgage. Lower rates make buying a home more affordable.

30-year fixed mortgage rate
Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Weekly 30-year fixed rates averaged by month. Link to data page.

The national debt

What the federal government owes, and what the debt costs in interest payments.

Federal debt

Total debt of the US federal government, in trillions of dollars.

Total federal debt outstanding in trillions of dollars
Source: U.S. Treasury, Debt to the Penny. Total public debt outstanding, end of each month. Link to data page.

Interest on the debt

What the government paid in interest on its debt over the previous 12 months. Depends on both debt levels and interest rates.

Interest paid on the federal debt over the previous 12 months
Source: U.S. Treasury, Interest Expense on the Public Debt Outstanding. Rolling 12-month total. Link to data page.

Paychecks and the public mood

Inflation-adjusted pay

Hourly pay of typical private-sector workers (excluding managers), net of inflation.

Average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees, adjusted for inflation
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees (about four-fifths of private workers), adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Price Index and expressed in the latest month's dollars. Link to data page.

Wages across the income distribution

Inflation-adjusted weekly pay of full-time workers near the bottom (10th percentile), middle (median), and top (90th percentile) of the pay scale, relative to early 2024.

Inflation-adjusted weekly earnings at the 10th percentile, median, and 90th percentile
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, usual weekly earnings of full-time wage and salary workers (Current Population Survey). Quarterly data, adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Price Index. Link to data page.

Consumer confidence

How optimistic households feel about their finances and the economy, by income group. Higher means more optimistic.

Consumer confidence by income group
Source: University of Michigan Survey of Consumers. Data series: Index of Consumer Sentiment Within Income Terciles. Link to data page.

Net sentiment about future business conditions

The share of people expecting good business conditions a year from now, minus the share expecting bad ones. Below zero, pessimists outnumber optimists.

Net sentiment about business conditions in a year
Source: University of Michigan Survey of Consumers. Data series: Expected Change in Business Conditions in a Year. Net economic sentiment is calculated as the difference between percent with a favorable outlook and percent with an unfavorable outlook. Link to data page.